The Future of GRCs

In GE2011, about 40% of Singaporeans voted for the opposition.

But only 6 opposition members managed to get into parliament, against 81 PAP members.

This was just a tiny 7%.

( The 7th member added in 2013 made the percentage just look slightly better at 8%.)

Why is that so?

This is the effect of The Redrawing of Electoral Boundaries, or what many called as Gerry-Mandering.

The tactic of GRC coupled with nicely drawn lines are the very reason why PAP has been able to control the parliament.

But if PAP really wants to play the game this way, there is Glad Tidings for the opposition camp.

Let me explain.


Assuming one day, the opposition percentage rises from 40% to 49%, the game will start to have a twist.

If you look at the diagram i provided, you will see that once the Blue Team's support is as high as 43 out of 87, or rather 49.42528%, they will not just secure just 1 GRC and 2 SMCs.

Rather, it shall be approximately 6 GRCs and 8 SMCs (out of 15 GRCs and 12 SMCs).


How can it be?? You might ask...

This is the law of Mathematics: patterns, groupings and distribution.

If a group of 30% opposition supporters gathered in a region, the PAP could easily cut the pie and evenly distribute them into minorities in various GRCs.

If the percentage rises to 40%, only 1 GRC and 2 SMCs are in the pockets of the Blue Team.

But when the odds rises to nearly 50%, even a 49.9 can start a domino effect and cause a shakeup.

If you do not believe in my theory, just simply:

1. Get a piece of paper
2. Draw 44 circles and 43 crosses.
3. Randomly divided them into 15 groups of (4,5,6) and 12 singles.
4. Try as much as possible to give the circles(The PAP) an advantage and make the crosses just minorities in the group.

You will be surprised how many Wins the Crosses can get.


And with that, may God help the Blues.


Thia Khiang was actually grinning from ear to ear... haha

All the opposition needs is to convince another 9% of the eligible voters to SWING their votes to the BLUES.

And I assure you that day will            come.


=)
BN